What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 26, 2016

Last week’s economic news was abundant with releases on home builder sentiment, housing starts, building permits, sales of previously owned homes. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released its customary statement at the conclusion of its meeting; Fed Chair Janet Yellen also gave a press conference. Weekly readings on new jobless claims and mortgage rates were released as usual.

NAHB: Builder Sentiment Increases in September

Home builder confidence in housing market conditions increased in September according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Builder confidence rose five points to 65; analysts expected a reading of 60 based on August’s reading of 59. NAHB said that September’s reading was boosted by more “serious” buyers entering housing markets.

Components used to determine NAHB HMI readings were also higher. Builder confidence in current market conditions rose six points to 71; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months rose by five points to 71. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments rose four points to 48. Buyer traffic readings have not reached 50 since 2005; 50 is a neutral benchmark for NAHB HMI readings.

Home prices continue rising at a higher pace than wages; this is pressuring first-time and moderate income buyers out of the market. An ongoing shortage of available homes is pressing prices higher as demand increases. Analysts pay close attention to the NAHB HMI as building more new homes is a key factor in easing the shortage of homes for sale.

Housing Starts, Building Permits Lower

Commerce Department readings on housing starts and permits issued were lower for August Housing starts were lower in August at 1.142 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual pace. Analysts expected 1.182 million housing starts based on July’s reading of 1.212 million starts. Regional readings showed a dip in starts in the South. Severe flooding in Louisiana contributed to the lower reading for housing starts. August’s reading for housing starts was 5.80 percent lower than July’s reading and 0.90 percent lower than for July 2015.

Building permits issued were nearly flat in August; this was likely due to the prime building season winding down 1.139 million permits were issued as compared to 1.144 million permits issued in July. Single-family starts were six percent lower than for July and were 1.20 percent lower year-over-year.

Existing Home Sales Dip: High Demand, Low Supply Cited

Sales of pre-owned homes fell by 0.90 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million sales. Analysts expected a reading of 5.48 million sales; July’s reading for sales of pre-owned homes was 5.38 million sales.

Low inventory of available homes continues to impact housing markets as demand for homes increased and prices rose; the national average home price was $240,000 in August. Rising home prices continued to be driven by high demand and low supplies. These conditions also impacted first-time and moderate income home buyers who were pressured to keep up with rapidly rising home prices.

While mortgage rates remain relatively low, higher home prices and tight mortgage credit requirements remain obstacles for first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 3.48 percent; the average rate for a15-year fixed rate mortgage fell on one basis point to 2.76 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was lower by two basis points at 2.80 percent.

Analysts expected new jobless claims to remain flat at the prior week’s reading of 260,000 new claims, but 252,000 new claims were filed for the lowest reading since July. The four-week rolling average of new jobless claims fell by 22250 claims to 258,500. The four-week reading is considered a less volatile reading than week-to-week readings.

Federal Reserve: No Increase in Fed Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee said in its post-meeting statement that the target federal funds rate would not be raised. In a press conference given after the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that although the economy continued to improve, the Fed had concerns over the labor market and decided not to raise rates. Any increase in Federal Reserve rates triggers increases in consumer lending rates.

What’s Ahead

This week’s readings include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, readings on new and pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

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3336 S 155th Lane Goodyear, AZ 85338

$462,490

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,797 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6692746

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Below Market Financing Available!!!!!!!!! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the Great Room, kitchen and dining room, with access to the covered patio for outdoor lounging and entertaining. The owner's suite enjoys a private location at the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Three additional secondary bedrooms are comfortable and private retreats for household members and overnight guests. Photos are renderings of a model home, not the actual home.

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17913 W Addie Lane Surprise, AZ 85374

$462,000

2 Beds

2 Baths

2,302 SqFt

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MLS # 6644538

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NEW ROOF, NEW CARPET, Fully Paid Solar and so much more (See Supplement for additional Comments) makes this 3-bed, 2-bath, and AZ Room in the 55+ guard-gated & golf course Community of Arizona Traditions the one for you! 2-car garage, desert front yard with a front patio that includes a decorative Table and Benches. The kitchen has ample cabinets, Stainless Steel Appliances, center island, and dining area w/bay window. The owners' suite is spacious! Owners' Bath consists of a walk-in closet, storage cabinets, Tub, shower, and dual sinks. Enjoy the Beautifully enclosed heated & cooled Arizona Room. The Landscaping Water System uses PVC. A feature you can't ignore is fully paid solar with electric bills avg. $20 per month. BRAND NEW ROOF - Installed December 2023, Exterior Paint 2015. Other features that benefit the buyer include - AC Unit 2014, Mini Split 2019. BBQ -2021, New Carpet - December 2023, Wood Floor - 2017, Dishwasher - 2018, Microwave - 2020, Stove - 2018.

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15715 N 168th Avenue Surprise, AZ 85388

$462,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,166 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6662476

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Nicely appointed home in the attractive Surprise community of Surprise Farms. 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, with a sought after kitchen greatroom open concept along with a separate formal living and dining room. Light and bright kitchen comes with corian countertops, stainless appliances, large island with sink, and upgraded white cabinets. Master bedroom has a large walk-in closet, double sinks, step-in shower, soaking tub, and private toilet room. The 3 other bedrooms are generously sized and all have a dedicated closet. Convenient location to neighborhood parks, shopping, dining, entertainment, and all the amenities that up and coming Surprise has to offer. VA loan is assumable to Veterans, Non-Veterans, and Investors! $2692 Monthly, 5% Interest Rate, $443,562 Balance as of 4/10.

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5432 W Beverly Road Laveen, AZ 85339

$462,000

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,170 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6670221

Property Type Single Family Residence

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AZ Resort Living at its Best! This gorgeous 3 bedrm, 2.5 bathrm, 2 car garage home is in the heart of Laveen (202 corridor). Newly painted interior,exterior & garage floor! Beautiful tile floors & new carpet T/O! Open floor plan makes for an entertainer's paradise. Kitchen has new quartz countertops,lowered counter/breakfast bar,new undermount stainless sink,new dishwasher,upgraded cabinetry. Some new lighting fixtures. Ground floor ensuite primary bedroom w/spa bathroom:separate shower,Garden tub & huge walk-in closet. Stepping outside onto the newly painted patio floor,bordered grass area ready for your personal touch,room for a pool! Located just moments away from shopping,dining, beautiful,parks & 202 freeway access (202 corridor). Easy access to Downtown Phoenix & Surrounding areas.

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