What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 26, 2016

Last week’s economic news was abundant with releases on home builder sentiment, housing starts, building permits, sales of previously owned homes. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released its customary statement at the conclusion of its meeting; Fed Chair Janet Yellen also gave a press conference. Weekly readings on new jobless claims and mortgage rates were released as usual.

NAHB: Builder Sentiment Increases in September

Home builder confidence in housing market conditions increased in September according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Builder confidence rose five points to 65; analysts expected a reading of 60 based on August’s reading of 59. NAHB said that September’s reading was boosted by more “serious” buyers entering housing markets.

Components used to determine NAHB HMI readings were also higher. Builder confidence in current market conditions rose six points to 71; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months rose by five points to 71. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments rose four points to 48. Buyer traffic readings have not reached 50 since 2005; 50 is a neutral benchmark for NAHB HMI readings.

Home prices continue rising at a higher pace than wages; this is pressuring first-time and moderate income buyers out of the market. An ongoing shortage of available homes is pressing prices higher as demand increases. Analysts pay close attention to the NAHB HMI as building more new homes is a key factor in easing the shortage of homes for sale.

Housing Starts, Building Permits Lower

Commerce Department readings on housing starts and permits issued were lower for August Housing starts were lower in August at 1.142 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual pace. Analysts expected 1.182 million housing starts based on July’s reading of 1.212 million starts. Regional readings showed a dip in starts in the South. Severe flooding in Louisiana contributed to the lower reading for housing starts. August’s reading for housing starts was 5.80 percent lower than July’s reading and 0.90 percent lower than for July 2015.

Building permits issued were nearly flat in August; this was likely due to the prime building season winding down 1.139 million permits were issued as compared to 1.144 million permits issued in July. Single-family starts were six percent lower than for July and were 1.20 percent lower year-over-year.

Existing Home Sales Dip: High Demand, Low Supply Cited

Sales of pre-owned homes fell by 0.90 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million sales. Analysts expected a reading of 5.48 million sales; July’s reading for sales of pre-owned homes was 5.38 million sales.

Low inventory of available homes continues to impact housing markets as demand for homes increased and prices rose; the national average home price was $240,000 in August. Rising home prices continued to be driven by high demand and low supplies. These conditions also impacted first-time and moderate income home buyers who were pressured to keep up with rapidly rising home prices.

While mortgage rates remain relatively low, higher home prices and tight mortgage credit requirements remain obstacles for first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 3.48 percent; the average rate for a15-year fixed rate mortgage fell on one basis point to 2.76 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was lower by two basis points at 2.80 percent.

Analysts expected new jobless claims to remain flat at the prior week’s reading of 260,000 new claims, but 252,000 new claims were filed for the lowest reading since July. The four-week rolling average of new jobless claims fell by 22250 claims to 258,500. The four-week reading is considered a less volatile reading than week-to-week readings.

Federal Reserve: No Increase in Fed Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee said in its post-meeting statement that the target federal funds rate would not be raised. In a press conference given after the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that although the economy continued to improve, the Fed had concerns over the labor market and decided not to raise rates. Any increase in Federal Reserve rates triggers increases in consumer lending rates.

What’s Ahead

This week’s readings include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, readings on new and pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

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3627 E Bethany Home Road Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$75,000,000

13 Beds

16 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6525456

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

Arizona's leading custom home builder, Cullum Homes, is proud to partner and present Arizona's most expensive home to ever be built. Introducing the $75 million Palo Cristi Estate Luxury Properties purchased the land last April and immediately partnered with Cullum Homes with the direction to define a next level of luxury in Paradise Valley. The mandate has been to spare no expense in creating a home that is both functional and captures a wow from every room. Shortly thereafter the team selected Desert Foothills for its landscaping with the same mandate. A mandate that applies to the two adding parcels which are also for sale. SEE MORE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE HOME ! Owner/Agent The custom home will include the following amenities - 13 bedrooms, 16 bathrooms, eight half-bathrooms, two Spa Locker Rooms, Garage space for 15 cars, four kitchens, four wet bars, two outdoor kitchens, one 2-story office/library, conference room, two bowling lanes, indoor shooting range, golf simulator, movie theater/Metaverse room, spa, one home gym, casino room, recording studio, collector's gallery, two story will be seven bedrooms in the main house with four bedrooms in the conference building, one bedroom in the attached casita and one bedroom in the guard house. The property's Spa will feature two locker rooms, sauna, snow room, Vitality Pools, two massage/treatment rooms. Inside the garages there will be a five-car garage with a car lift down to 9-car collector's garage. 1 car casita garage. Exterior Amenities: -2 pools 1 is the Cinema pool with a waterfall and large cinema screen -Lazy river -Spa -2 Baja Shelves -1 island green for chipping and putting -3 fire pits and 1 outdoor fireplace -2 outdoor kitchens -1 stage -Waterslide -Family game courtyard/outdoor lounge space.

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5719 E Starlight Way Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$50,000,000

6 Beds

8.5 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6601366

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

Welcome to an architectural masterpiece situated within Paradise Valley's prestigious Cameldale Estates. Positioned thoughtfully on a nearly 3-acre parcel in the northern face of Camelback Mountain to allow sweeping views of Mummy, Phoenix, McDowell, and Four Peaks mountain ranges. Design by world-renowned architects SAOTA, collaborating with local architect Stratton, and earning world recognition press/awards for innovative design and unparalleled beauty. Nearly 17,000 sqft of living will blend seamlessly into desert surroundings while offering every conceivable modern luxury. Chef's kitchen, cinema, gym/spa, resort-style infinity pool, with emphasis on seamless indoor/outdoor living. The modern organic design, coupled with exceptional craftsmanship, elevates it to a league of its own.

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5738 N Casa Blanca Drive Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$40,000,000

6 Beds

13.5 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6551905

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

New modern custom highest end construction build in Casa Blanca & Wilkinson corridor by Regal American Homes. Extremely private estate with stunning mountain views of Camelback, Praying Monk, & Mummy. This 6 bed, 13.5 bath, 23,417 sqft is for the most discerning buyer. Modern design includes central courtyard, open great room & chef's kitchen w/large back kitchen holding hidden bar, pantry, Costco room, & walk-in cooler & freezer. Split floorplan where primary suite includes separate his and hers: vanity, enclosed toilets, & closets, large walk-in shower, free standing tub, red light room, laundry, safe & private outdoor access. Experience true indoor/outdoor living w/custom pool & spa, golf simulator, sport/pickleball court, outdoor BBQ & fireplace, & new landscaping featuring 2 dog run walking path, garden, mature olive, citrus, oak & oleander trees, turf, irrigation, & exterior lighting. Additional rooms include large private gym w/enclosed massage room, office, kid's lounge/playroom, and art and study rooms. Safe room connects to basement with shooting range, lounge and bar, and recreation barn. Short drive to world class resorts, dining, shopping, Paradise Valley County Club & both Scottsdale & Phoenix Airports.

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7292 Exotic Gardens Drive Outside Arizona, CA 00000

$30,000,000

5 Beds

9 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6601741

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

Discover the luxury of possibility to pursue a passion and the freedom to be inspired set on 78+ acres (2 parcels) of coastal land. This gated estate was designed as the ultimate private retreat located in the romantic resort destination of Cambria. The estate lies at the heart of the pristine central coast. Security, privacy, and ease of helipad access are combined in this well-located estate. The nearest neighbors are state beaches and parks, and large holdings. The estate's acreage is in open pasture, Monterey pine forest, olive groves, and pinot noir vineyard setting. Principal structures of the property include the main residence, manager's residence, reception, office, guest house, staff apartments, and two show garage pavilions/event spaces for a total of 32,500 square feet! 12 bedrooms and 16 baths. The interior of the estate's main residence is gracious showcasing old world craftsmanship. The Great Hall opens to the vineyard view terrace. The Onyx Bar is a focal point for guests convenient to the fully equipped professional kitchen. The family room is a comfortable, centrally located, gathering place, opens to another terrace. The serene sanctuary of the master suite offers luxury amenities. Each guest suite offers a private bath and balcony. The West Wing leads to the home office, theater room, and a self-contained guest suite. This is an estate designed for entertaining from a private wine tasting for two to grand scale gala events. The event halls can be utilized as flexible spaces for a car collection. More than 60 vehicles can be housed in the estate showrooms. The conveniences of Cambria is less than two miles away. Airports and marinas are also nearby. A helipad on the property adds to the transportation options. Long a magnet for artists, musicians, and writers. Cambria is a favorite beach destination for visitors and a nurturing natural haven for her lucky residents. The Central Coast lifestyle has attracted the attention of the national press appearing in many recent 'Best of' lists. The property lies along the edge of Coastal Highway 1 aka Pacific Coast Highway, which has no peer. Its most scenic part begins where the estate's driveway ends, turn north and drive the legendary Big Sur coast. The real value of luxury is not the possessions themselves, but the experiences they make possible. We welcome you to encounter the priceless beauty of what's here, in this place, like no other.

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2671 Highway 82 -- Patagonia, AZ 85624

$29,950,000

16 Beds

15 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6595615

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

This is your opportunity to own the historic Rail X Ranch, set against a landscape that is truly breathtaking! To the West are hypnotic sunsets and to the East is the Coronado National Forest with vistas that seem to go on forever. This is a rare chance to own a piece of Arizona's history. Located at 4,500 feet above sea level temperatures are generally 10 to 15 degrees cooler year-round than in nearby Tucson. This stunning 1739 Acre Ranch Estate features a main residence with casita totaling 11,398 square feet and containing 8 bedrooms, 9 full bath rooms and 3 half baths. The main house was Constructed in 1937 and is nestled in the foothills overlooking a tree lined pond and containing numerous patios and porches to enjoy both sunsets and sunrises. The property also has 2 additional homes for employees or managers as well as 3 apartments for employees or guests. The Ranch features a 1930s barn which serves as a workshop and storage area as well as a steel building which could easily converted to a horse barn. The main compound also includes a large office suite and conference room, the property has everything you need to work from home or to handle ranch operations on site. After decades without hunting, wildlife abounds at the Rail X Ranch, including deer, dove, quail, and even javelina. The birding is exceptional, with more than 260 species documented in the nearby Patagonia Sonoita Creek Preserve. Just South of town, there are myriad opportunities for fishing and boating at Patagonia Lake State Park; and the area is filled with wonderful opportunities for horseback riding and hiking. The Ranch has the added benefit of having an artesian well on the property with Water bubbling up and feeding a transportation ditch to deliver this precious resource throughout the ranch. Combined with 8 wells situated throughout the property the Ranch has a unique and valuable asset in its water resources. To complete the picture, The Rail X is also one of the few ranches in the area which has maintained ownership of the mineral rights for the property. This asset provides land security now and into the future. The Rail X Ranch is truly an iconic and unique part of Arizona's History and Heritage and provides a rustic setting yet with all of the upscale amenities to enjoy and cherish your living environment!

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7620 N Red Ledge Drive Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$29,000,000

6 Beds

8.5 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6551951

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

A true modern masterpiece for the most discerning buyer. This mountainside estate in the town of Paradise Valley is being designed and built in collaboration with Incline Builders and Architekshon, Inc. The nearly 11.5 acre homesite offers unparalleled views and an extremely unique level of privacy and exclusion within 20 minutes of world class resorts, dining, shopping, Paradise Valley Country Club and both Scottsdale and Phoenix Sky Harbor Airports. The modern design will include a 13,000 sq ft main house and 2500 sq ft guest house. Your dream home awaits with 14 to 20 foot ceilings, large open rooms w/ windows of glass, a gym w/ steam shower & sauna, office, movie theater, wine cellar, 2 pools and 7 car garage.

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20958 N 112th Street Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$28,000,000

7 Beds

8 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6375239

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

Welcome to ''The Aerie'', perched high in the McDowell Mountains in Scottdale's most exclusive community of Silverleaf sits this one of a kind masterpiece with unmatched views of the valley below. Thoughtfully designed by Erik Peterson of PHX Architecture and built with the ultimate in perfection by Paragon Custom Homes into a true work of art, this brand new desert contemporary home is an amazing estate. From the open great room which leads to the designer kitchen and hidden catering kitchen to the thoughtfully designed entertainment zone, and the palatial master wing this home has it all. Embodying a true indoor outdoor lifestyle, entertaining spaces flow to the beautiful outdoors all with amazing views of the valley below. Wait, it gets better... you still have time to make changes to the final finish selections to make it your very own! Developed by DMB Development, Silverleaf is a private guard gated community that is enhanced by tree lined streets, private parks and the most private enclaves of homes in Arizona. At the center of Silverleaf sits the renowned Silverleaf Club which boasts a par 72 Tom Weiskopf designed golf course, dramatic clubhouse, spa and countless other options for experiencing the desert resort lifestyle.

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10944 E Whistling Wind Way -- Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$27,500,000

8 Beds

11 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6583185

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

The epitome of luxury + cutting edge design is this 15,378 sqft spectacular NEW BUILD! A contemporary masterpiece by renowned ARCHITECT BING HU, COMPLETION 12/23, in SILVERLEAF'S UPPER CANYON w/ AMAZING VIEWS! Very rare- this hillside home is on one level including its infinity pool + 11 car garages + 2 bedrm guesthouse + gym: except for a fabulous 2ND MASTER on upper level of main house. Soaring ceilings in the grand foyer + 21 ft great room w/ chalk white floors evoke a sense of awe, while the outdoors beckon you to relax + unwind. The property also features a theatre, 2 offices, 8 bedrms + 11 baths, pickleball court,golf simulator, cold plunge +3000 sqft game/play/car showrm w/ bar + glass wall to outside, below guesthouse. GOLF MEMBERSHIP IS NOW AVAILABLE! Embrace an unparalleled lifestyle where modernity meets luxury!

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Sedona AZ 86336

$25,000,000

8 Beds

9 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6562659

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

Unique opportunity to own over 23 acres as part of Sedona's famous landmark with multi purpose uses which has been an iconic piece of the Sedona community. Current zoning is RS-18 and OC (Oak Creek Heritage-See city Zoning guidelines in documents). Included in eight separate parcels are 3 adjacent lots on OAK CREEK, 2 separate houses each with their own guest house. One residence built in 2007 with 4271 sq. ft. and a 900 sq. ft. guest house. Second residence built in 1997 with 2230 sq. ft. and 805 sq. ft. guest house. Sedona Creative Life Center is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization founded in 2000 to celebrate the human spirit and provide an uplifting and nourishing environment for celebrations, spiritually enhancing programs, and personal growth. Their mission is to become a primary source of programs for spiritual growth, and for programs that encourage healing and harmony of the spiritual, mental, emotional and physical body. People of all ages and beliefs are invited to participate in events to discover transformational learning tools and empower their spiritual journey. The center is nestled in twenty-three beautiful secluded acres, just a few minutes from the heart of Sedona, Arizona, a world-renowned spiritual Mecca. Many people who are on a spiritual path travel to Sedona as part of their quest for a higher level of consciousness and understanding. See City of Sedona for all zoning questions.

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5823 N Invergordon Road Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$24,900,000

8 Beds

10 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6598304

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

One of a kind residence redefining bespoke Arizona living. This compound is a testament to modern organic architecture of a scale never seen in the Valley. Effortlessly live and entertain in the expansive public rooms that all open to the carefully curated outdoor areas. The main suite is enhanced by a cozy library, executive office, oversized luxurious bath & stunning closet resembling a private boutique. Expansive outdoors anchored by an oversized square infinity pool beckoning you to take a refreshing dip. Challenge friends to a game of pickleball as you take in the views of Camelback Mountain. Oversized garages w/8+ spaces plus the ability to add lifts. Full guest house and separate pool house complete this unique property. Come explore before the opportunity slips away!

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10719 E Rimrock Drive Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$20,000,000

6 Beds

8 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6455254

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

Immediate occupancy opportunity! Offering Silverleaf Golf Membership and Furnishings. Warm and welcoming, nestled on a flat pad. Home's motor court, detached guest house, front-and-rear yard, are all accessible without elevation changes. Secondary rooms, second wet bar and additional flex rooms offer views. Perched on McDowell Mountains, offering an exclusive 'front row seat experience' of sprawling and vibrant golf course, twinkling city lights, plus captivating near/far mountain views. Flawlessly crafted; meticulously maintained by valley's renowned luxury home builder, Desert Star Construction. This signature address encompasses of over 9 acres; 13,111 square feet of living space to including 1,789 SF 2 bedroom guest home. SEE MOTION VIDEO LEED certified; with geothermal heating and cooling energy efficiency. Amenities include a baker's prep kitchen, butler's pantry, wine room, 13 limestone fireplaces, plaster walls, custom cabinetry and solid hand-hewn walnut doors. Alfresco amenities include an incredible pool and spa, low maintenance lawn, along with a wealth of lounge and dining spaces. Horseshoe Canyon at Silverleaf is known for its prestige, lower density and highest level of security. This masterpiece exudes pure timeless elegance, privacy, and craftsmanship.

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7540 N Red Ledge Drive Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$19,500,000

5 Beds

7 Baths

-- SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6477513

Property Type Single Family - Detached

Price Type --

This Modern ''Frank Lloyd Wright Inspired'' Clearwater Hills private estate is being designed and built on the best available view lot of Paradise Valley. The owners, in collaboration with Incline Builders and Architekshon, Inc. have designed a true modern glass and steel masterpiece. On 5.01 unobstructed acres of Phoenix Mountain Preserve with Camelback and Mummy Mountain views, it offers extremely unique elevations, sophistication and manned gated protection while only minutes away of world class resorts, dining, shopping, Paradise Valley Country Club and both Scottsdale and Phoenix Sky Harbor Airports. The modern design will include 11,500 square feet of high ceilings, large open rooms beaming with natural light, his & her offices, a gym, 2 master suites, chef's dream kitchen, sauna, movie theater, wine room, negative edge pool, pool cabana and 5 car garage. A gradual $2M private driveway has been installed.

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