A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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18300 N Shimmer Lane Surprise, AZ 85374

$465,000

2 Beds

2 Baths

1,627 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6654095

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Desired Madera model with great room floor plan, and heated salt water pool! Lush landscaping backyard provide plenty of privacy when frolicking in the salt water pool. Home has been professionally modified to a large open great room, ideal for a larger table and game area. Inside features plantation shutters throughout, GE profile kitchen appliances, additional kitchen cabinets with built-in desk, a bay window in the primary bedroom, two sinks in primary bath, and inside laundry with utility sink. Garage has built-in and workbench. The pebble-tec pool pool with its attractive water feature is heated and self-cleaning. Your tropical backyard has an extended covered patio with pull-down shades and strategically planted foliage that provide privacy.

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3789 E Yorkshire Circle San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$465,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,134 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6658819

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

PRICE ADJUSTMENT -This delightful property is nestled on a premium corner lot! Immaculate interior boasts vaulted ceilings, tons of tile flooring, fresh/new carpet in all the right places, graceful archways, & a spacious living/dining room w/French doors to the custom AZ room. The kitchen was update w/newer appliances, recessed lighting, granite counters, & ample white cabinetry w/crown molding. Super island w/a breakfast bar & a breakfast nook is ideal for casual dining. The generously sized AZ Room is bathed in sunlight with ceiling fans, excellent for year-round entertainment. Retreat to the main suite, w/ AZ room access, a full ensuite w/dual sinks, & a walk-in closet. Delightful backyard has artificial turf landscape & looks like a beautiful park!

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3841 Turkey Trail Lakeside, AZ 85929

$465,000

4 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,072 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6659919

Property Type Manufactured Home

Price Type --

Welcome to this stunning 4-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home that seamlessly blends comfort, style, and functionality. With an open concept lies a kitchen, which boasts recent upgrades, providing both modern aesthetics and practicality. Stainless steel appliances, sleek countertops, and ample cabinet space make this kitchen a haven for both aspiring chefs and busy families. The home features a thoughtful layout, with a spacious living room perfect for hosting gatherings and a separate family room that provides a more intimate space for relaxation. The family room opens up possibilities for cozy movie nights or quiet evenings with loved ones. Newly installed heating and cooling systems ensure year-round comfort, allowing you to enjoy every season without compromise. The large windows throughout the home allow natural light to flood in, creating a bright and airy ambiance. Outside, the expansive fenced backyard offers a private retreat. With an RV gate and hook-ups, it's a dream for adventure enthusiasts looking to hit the open road. For those with a penchant for hobbies or extra storage space, the property comes complete with a spacious 3-car garage and 2 additional outbuildings. Whether you're a car enthusiast, DIY enthusiast, or simply need extra space, these structures provide endless possibilities.

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43317 W Wallner Drive Maricopa, AZ 85138

$465,000

5 Beds

3 Baths

3,401 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6663086

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Your dream home is finally here! You'll LOVE to own this one-of-a-kind two-story residence in Rancho El Dorado! Starting with a 3-car garage, low-care front yard, and stone accents. Be delighted by an inviting interior showcasing a combined living/dining room and a formal family room paired with tile flooring in all the right places. The impeccable kitchen is equipped with recessed lighting, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters, mosaic backsplash, white cabinetry, a peninsula with a breakfast bar, and a breakfast nook. Head upstairs, to discover the HUGE loft offering endless possibilities! The bright main bedroom boasts plush carpet and an ensuite with dual sinks. The expansive backyard provides a covered patio and pavers. A rare find like this will surely impress you!

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