What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 26, 2016

Last week’s economic news was abundant with releases on home builder sentiment, housing starts, building permits, sales of previously owned homes. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released its customary statement at the conclusion of its meeting; Fed Chair Janet Yellen also gave a press conference. Weekly readings on new jobless claims and mortgage rates were released as usual.

NAHB: Builder Sentiment Increases in September

Home builder confidence in housing market conditions increased in September according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Builder confidence rose five points to 65; analysts expected a reading of 60 based on August’s reading of 59. NAHB said that September’s reading was boosted by more “serious” buyers entering housing markets.

Components used to determine NAHB HMI readings were also higher. Builder confidence in current market conditions rose six points to 71; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months rose by five points to 71. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments rose four points to 48. Buyer traffic readings have not reached 50 since 2005; 50 is a neutral benchmark for NAHB HMI readings.

Home prices continue rising at a higher pace than wages; this is pressuring first-time and moderate income buyers out of the market. An ongoing shortage of available homes is pressing prices higher as demand increases. Analysts pay close attention to the NAHB HMI as building more new homes is a key factor in easing the shortage of homes for sale.

Housing Starts, Building Permits Lower

Commerce Department readings on housing starts and permits issued were lower for August Housing starts were lower in August at 1.142 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual pace. Analysts expected 1.182 million housing starts based on July’s reading of 1.212 million starts. Regional readings showed a dip in starts in the South. Severe flooding in Louisiana contributed to the lower reading for housing starts. August’s reading for housing starts was 5.80 percent lower than July’s reading and 0.90 percent lower than for July 2015.

Building permits issued were nearly flat in August; this was likely due to the prime building season winding down 1.139 million permits were issued as compared to 1.144 million permits issued in July. Single-family starts were six percent lower than for July and were 1.20 percent lower year-over-year.

Existing Home Sales Dip: High Demand, Low Supply Cited

Sales of pre-owned homes fell by 0.90 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million sales. Analysts expected a reading of 5.48 million sales; July’s reading for sales of pre-owned homes was 5.38 million sales.

Low inventory of available homes continues to impact housing markets as demand for homes increased and prices rose; the national average home price was $240,000 in August. Rising home prices continued to be driven by high demand and low supplies. These conditions also impacted first-time and moderate income home buyers who were pressured to keep up with rapidly rising home prices.

While mortgage rates remain relatively low, higher home prices and tight mortgage credit requirements remain obstacles for first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 3.48 percent; the average rate for a15-year fixed rate mortgage fell on one basis point to 2.76 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was lower by two basis points at 2.80 percent.

Analysts expected new jobless claims to remain flat at the prior week’s reading of 260,000 new claims, but 252,000 new claims were filed for the lowest reading since July. The four-week rolling average of new jobless claims fell by 22250 claims to 258,500. The four-week reading is considered a less volatile reading than week-to-week readings.

Federal Reserve: No Increase in Fed Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee said in its post-meeting statement that the target federal funds rate would not be raised. In a press conference given after the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that although the economy continued to improve, the Fed had concerns over the labor market and decided not to raise rates. Any increase in Federal Reserve rates triggers increases in consumer lending rates.

What’s Ahead

This week’s readings include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, readings on new and pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

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$465,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,188 SqFt

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Exquisitely remodeled from top to bottom. This modern home boasts 3BR, 2BA, and an array of upgrades. This home features a new kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, Quartz Countertops. Nicely done Bathrooms, some new plumbing and electrical, New Roof, New Windows, New AC, Fresh Paint inside and out, and more. Entertain effortlessly in the backyard oasis featuring a sparkling pool and RV gate for added convenience. Desirable location, close to everything. Immediate access to freeways, minutes from Sky Harbor Airport and Downtown Phoenix. No HOA. Don't miss this opportunity!

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1502 E Garfield Street Phoenix, AZ 85006

$465,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,032 SqFt

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MLS # 6685102

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Beautifully updated 3 bed-2 bath home on spacious lot in Historic Garfield. Walk to vibrant downtown Phoenix restaurants, art, festivals, and more! Natural light floods all rooms creating bright + airy ambience. Home has an open floor plan with high ceilings, split bedrooms, indoor laundry, + all new luxury vinyl plank flooring. Kitchen has freshly painted cabinets, quartz counters, + ss appliances. You can live in an adorable historic home w/ all the modern conveniences. Low maintenance desert landscaping in front. Large backyard provides option for casita or office space for those who WFH. 2016 - roof replaced, HVAC replaced, new Pella windows, updated bathrooms & kitchen. 2024 - all flooring + baseboards replaced, all fresh interior paint, and more. This home is an absolute gem!

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1925 W Joan De Arc Avenue Phoenix, AZ 85029

$465,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,898 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6675275

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Sit under the covered patio and enjoy mountain views from your backyard in this energy-efficient home conveniently located to elem school, parks, golf, gorgeous Moon Valley hiking. Fresh paint, new carpet, dbl-pane windows/sliding door. 16-seer HVAC system, incld ductwork inspected and cleaned for your convenience. 4 bdrms pls room off kitchen for office or pantry, gas range with dual ovens, newer dishwasher, Corian countertops, integrated sink. Outside has Tex-Coat cool wall heat reflective coating and a 50yr rated, heat-reflective roof (2011). Other systems replaced: bathroom underground flex pipe, laundry room/kitchen sewer line, thick blown-in insulation in attic, which has extra storage build-outs. Oversized yard with RV gate to store the big toys. Beautiful 50yr-shingle roof.

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$465,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,994 SqFt

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MLS # 6678829

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Welcome to this beautiful 2017 home featuring a wonderful floorplan with a split master bedroom and large kitchen with plenty of cabinets and walk in pantry. Exterior of home was recently triple coat painted and has a large RV gate, 30 amp RV plug, and 20x20 storage shed in backyard. House has water filtration system and softener and is solar financed with a $39,000 balance. You will love the vaulted ceilings in the family room and plenty of windows for lots of natural light coming in. Water heater is only 2 years old and the attic and walls are double insulated. Much pride of ownership in this fantastic home just waiting to become YOUR home next with no HOA.

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