A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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2329 E Bowker Street Phoenix, AZ 85040

$460,000

4 Beds

3.5 Baths

3,073 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6687666

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Here's a great opportunity to own a large 4 bedroom 3.5 bathroom home in an amzingly convenient Phoenix neighborhood. Features include: Tiled floors Large kitchen with tons of counter and cabinet space, Gas stove, built-in surround sound in family room, loft and patio, large covered patio, fireplace, huge master suite, Built-In BBQ area. The neighborhood features mature trees, parks, playgrounds, a basketball court and a community pool! home is located just minutes from just about anything you could want or need. There's restaurants, easy freeway access, job opportunities, golf, hiking and more just minutes away. You'll also be close to Downtown Phoenix, Sky Harbor, etc. Hurry and take a look! *The sale may be subject to Court approval.

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11865 N Allegro Road Maricopa, AZ 85139

$460,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,440 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6684957

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Nearly 5 acres of fenced horse property with a site built metal frame block stucco home! Home has recently been upgraded with wood-look tile flooring throughout! Spacious bright kitchen, includes all appliances & large breakfast bar w/storage overlooking living room! Primary bedrm & bath have jetted tub, remodeled vanity, walk-in & secondary closets. Guest bathrm has matching remodeled vanity. Huge laundry rm connects to primary bath w/door provides privacy. Key items include: 400' deep well & 2 neighbors pay for water usage, 45x36' concrete slab ready for supersized garage, gravel driveways, storage sheds, new water heater, watersoftner, fans thru out, full covered front patio, newer exterior paint & 7 pine trees w/irrigation. All this in quaint Hidden Valley surrounded by mountains!

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5843 W Crocus Drive Glendale, AZ 85306

$460,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,130 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6686851

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Beautiful home in highly desired area featuring spacious split floorplan, large bedrooms, newer kitchen cabinets with granite, eat-in kitchen nook, formal living and dining and large family room! Newer light fixtures, ceiling fans, covered patio and a private pool for entertaining in hot AZ! Plenty of parking space, extended driveway, 10' RV gate with concrete pad for your toys and much, much more!

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854 S Cerise -- Mesa, AZ 85208

$460,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,769 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6686531

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Highly sought after 4 bedroom single level floor plan rarely on the market. HVAC replaced in 2019, Water Heater in 2023 Sstainless steel appliances plus washer & dryer convey. Neutral Two Tone Paint Throughout home. The 2 car garage has epoxy coated floor. OLD REPUBLIC Home Warranty in place & transferrable to Buyer. This home has lots of upgrades including granite kitchen counter tops, tile floors in all the right places, ceiling fans throughout, all appliances included, desert landscape in front yard & paver hardscape with synthetic grass in rear yard for easy maintenance. This is a gr spacious single level home located in a gated community within close proximity to nearby schools, city park as well as shopping, dining, medical center & easy freeway access. This is one you have to see

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