A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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4442 W Hannah Street San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

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$459,990

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,342 SqFt

Status Active

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Property Type Single Family Residence

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Brand new, energy-efficient home available NOW! A unique single-story home featuring a social living area. Umber cabinets with hardware, dusty white granite countertops, stone-look tile flooring and warm beige carpet in our Calm package. Enjoy secluded primary suites at San Tan Groves in San Tan Valley. San Tan Groves is conveniently located minutes from San Tan Mountain Regional Park, making morning hikes easy! This community boasts ample storage and a 5 bedroom layout. Enjoy dining and entertainment just a few miles away. We build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health,

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2101 W Shelly Avenue Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$459,990

4 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,051 SqFt

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MLS # 6688460

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Welcome to Radiance at Superstition Vistas, a brand new master planned community located on the border where Mesa meets Apache Junction. This is a rare opportunity for optimal living - to have the convenience of City living while enjoying the breathtaking Superstition mountains! Small town feel meets modern amenities at its best! The Hanna 2052 sq ft, 4 bed/2.5 bath adorable, energy efficient home in which you will find tile in all common areas, 9 foot ceilings and on trend extra bright white walls.. Located close to the 24, 60 & 202.

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$459,990

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,139 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6557712

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Brand new, energy-efficient home available NOW! This single-story features a split floorplan with the primary suite tucked away in the back of the home. White cabinets with ice quartz countertop and backsplash. Grey tile flooring in our Balanced package. Paloma Creek - Reserve Series is coming soon to Surprise. Strategically located near Loop 303, this family friendly community offers easy access to the amenities of metro Phoenix and includes an exclusive community center on your doorstep. Each energy-efficient home comes standard with features that allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.* Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

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$459,990

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,832 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6671311

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2024! The expansive great room of the Mason is perfect for watching the big game with friends. Espresso cabinets with white/grey granite countertops, wood-look tile flooring with multi-tone carpet in our Elemental package. Last chance to own at Camino Crossing in Sun City West. With convenient access to the Loop 303, this community provides easy access to schools, major employers, shopping, dining and entertainment. Your family will love spending time at the community park complete with a playground, corn hole and ramadas. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living.*

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